We recently asked LoopNet members to tell us when they expected commercial real estate sale market to bounce back. More than 1,500 LoopNet members responded to the poll, which was conducted from May 7, 2009, through May 21, 2009.
Here are the results:
- Only 1/3 (33%) of respondents expect Commercial Real Estate sales transaction activity to recover in 2009. A plurality of respondents (42%) is not expecting the market to pick up until 2010, and a large number (26%) are not expecting recovery until 2011.
- Nearly half (46%) of respondents see access to capital as the most significant obstacle to recovery. Economic uncertainty, which in turn significantly influences asset pricing, was the second most cited obstacle, at 29% of respondents. Close to a quarter (23%) of respondents explicitly cited differences in pricing expectations between buyers and sellers as the most important obstacle. While the results were largely consistent across all three major participant segments, owners rate the importance of access to capital slightly higher, and differing price expectations slightly lower, than brokers or investors.
- Two thirds (66%) of respondents expect that price declines of 10% or more from today’s prices will be required to restart the market, with 37% predicting 10-20% declines and 30% predicting declines north of 30%.
- As a group, owners are more optimistic, both in terms of recovery timing and expected price declines, than are investors and brokers.
Tell us what you think. What do you think is the major obstacle to a rebound? What has been your experience with accessing capital needed to complete a transaction?